SPACE IN THE CITY

 

‘Will you still vote for me when you’re 64?’

Andrew Bradstock, 5 November 2008

 

 

According to the 2001 Census there are now more people over 60 than under 16

 – and the electoral register reflects this.

 

20% of eligible voters in the UK are retired (65+) - but

  (a) their higher propensity to vote, and

  (b) drop in turnout among young heightens the impact of the population aging

 

2001 saw historically low turnout rates for first-time voters

2005 saw a higher general turnout but a further drop in voting among 18-24s

Also: 16% of people aged 18-24 are not on the electoral register (2% of 65+)

 

2005 General Election – turnout base (with 2001 figures and difference in brackets)

 

          All                 61% (59%, +2%)

 

          18-24            37% (39%, -2%)

25-34            49% (46%, +3%)

35-44            61% (59%, +2%)

45-54            65% (65%, 0)

55-64            71% (69%, +2%)

65+               75% (70%, +5%)

 

 

2005 General Election – breakdown of turnout by age group

 

          18-24            6.6%

          25-34            14.7%

          35-44            19.3%

          45-54            18.2%

          55-64            15.9%

          65+               25.3%

 

• ‘Pensioners’ cast 1 in every 4 votes;
• 65+ the most significant age group in the electorate;
• ‘grey vote’ = 41.2%
• more votes were cast by 65+ than people under 34.

 

• in 18 seats 33% of the votes were cast by 65+
• in 24 seats half of the votes were ‘grey votes’
• in 405 seats 40% of votes were ‘grey votes’

(in 55 seats, less than 33% of votes were grey votes)

 

Labour share of 65+ vote fell from 41% in 1997 to 35% in 2005

Conservative share rose from 36% to 41%

LibDem share rose from 17% to 18%

 

2009 will see an additional 1.3m grey voters (baby boomers)

 

• we could see the grey vote accounting for 45% of total votes cast
• we could see nearly 27% of total votes being cast by 65+

 

if gap in voting behaviour remains static – 79 seats will have 50% grey vote

if current trends continue – 126 seats will have 50% grey vote

(2005 – 24 seats)

 

BUT – in 2009 there will be 700,000 new first-time voters.